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Qatari and Emirati LNG loadings fell by 60 billion cubic meters (bcm) year-on-year between March and October 2026, yet global LNG output dropped by only 20 bcm, or 5%, over the same stretch. New liquefaction plants elsewhere absorbed most of the loss. The International Energy Agency's point is that this cushion gets thinner in winter, when heating demand in the northern hemisphere is at its highest.
Transit through the Strait of Hormuz was still severely restricted in late October, according to the agency's report, carried by ANI.
Key numbers
- 60 bcm the year-on-year fall in LNG loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates during March to October 2026
- 20 bcm the resulting drop in global LNG output over the same period, equal to 5%
- 10 to 25 bcm the year-on-year decline in global LNG supply the IEA set out for November to March, depending on how quickly shipments through the strait recover
- Over 20 bcm the incremental winter supply the IEA expects from new and existing projects outside the Persian Gulf, including about 18 bcm from new plants
Pipelines cannot take up the slack
The agency said the scope for raising long-distance pipeline gas deliveries is limited, because those lines generally run close to their design capacity. That leaves seaborne cargoes as the swing supply.
North American exporters are expected to drive what growth there is, the IEA said, with expanding projects in the United States, Canada and Mexico, plus new facilities in West Africa and Australia. Even so, the report concluded that the extra volumes "would remain insufficient to compensate for the lost volumes from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates," as Businessworld reported.
In plain words: LNG is natural gas chilled into a liquid so it can travel by ship rather than by pipeline. When a shipping route that carries a large share of those cargoes is blocked, the gas does not simply arrive another way, because pipelines are already full and new plants take years to build. Buyers then compete for the cargoes that are moving, and that competition is what shows up in gas prices.
Two scenarios, and what is not settled
The IEA sketched two paths. If the strait begins progressively reopening in January 2027, global LNG supply falls by around 9 bcm, or 3%, year-on-year over the winter. If it stays closed until the end of March 2027, the decline is around 20 bcm, or 7%.
The report also flagged a further risk: unplanned outages and delays in ramping up new LNG projects, which would subtract from the supply growth the agency is counting on.
Every version of this story I read carries the same ANI account of the IEA report, including the copy published by the Economic Times. None of them gives a date for the strait reopening, and none reports a spot gas or crude price move tied to the report's publication.